Hawkish Remarks Suppress Interest Rate Cut Expectations, Silver Price Temporarily Stabilizes After Three Consecutive Declines [SMM Weekly Review]

At the beginning of the week, several US Fed officials made relatively hawkish remarks, leading to a decline in market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals gave up earlier gains, with silver prices falling for three consecutive trading days before briefly stopping falling and stabilizing. Several key US economic data releases are imminent, introducing uncertainty into the macro market, thus limiting further downside room for silver prices in the short term. Although silver prices may continue to adjust in the near term, and expectations for a decline in December solar cell orders could translate into weaker silver ingot demand, the core logic supporting silver's ability to hold up well remains unchanged from a medium and long-term perspective. Concerns over US fiscal sustainability persist, increased volatility in US Treasury yields is diminishing the appeal of US dollar assets, and sustained gold allocation demand from global central banks are factors that could potentially drive silver prices higher again.

[Economic Data]

Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 14 were 6.413 million barrels (expected: -60.3, actual: -342.6).

Bearish: US NAHB Housing Market Index for November was 38 (previous: 37, expected: 37); US Empire State Manufacturing Index for November was 18.7 (previous: 10.7, expected: 5.8).

[Spot Market] In the domestic silver spot market, spot premiums remained high this week, with some suppliers slightly raising premiums and holding back sales, adopting a wait-and-see approach near the weekend. According to the latest import and export data, silver ingot exports in October reached 652.8 mt, hitting a new high for the year. Domestic spot inventory continued to decline in November, and exports are expected to remain high. This week in the Shanghai market, mainstream quotations for large-smelter silver ingots against TD were at premiums of 30-35 yuan/kg with limited transactions, while suppliers of national standard silver ingots quoted against TD at premiums of 28-30 yuan/kg. Smelter-delivered national standard silver ingots were quoted against TD at premiums of 20-22 yuan/kg. Silver price premiums remained elevated. This week, as silver prices corrected, downstream rigid demand actively sought to purchase at lower prices. After prices stopped falling and rebounded, market activity turned sluggish again. Some silver nitrate enterprises mentioned that weak end-use consumption expectations in the PV sector in December might affect production. Short-term fundamental support in the spot market is weak, and market wait-and-see sentiment is strong.

Solar cell silver paste: This week's reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 7,538-7,920 yuan/kg; for the solar cell front-side finger, it was 11,342-11,915 yuan/kg; and for the solar cell front-side busbar, it was 11,292-11,865 yuan/kg.